9th Jun, 2007

3rd Tip on Becoming a Financial Whiz: How to Value a Stock - Comparable Ratio Valuation

One of the approaches that the Indiana University of Pennsylvania Student Managed Investment Portfolio utilizes to value companies is known as the Comparable Ratio Valuation. This method uses a spreadsheet that I developed last year in allowing a potential investment to be compared against its closet competitors to find a company’s “intrinsic value.” While this approach may ignore fundamental flaws in a company’s business model, it gives an investor a good base to start analyzing potential stocks to invest in.

To download a copy of the valuation spreadsheet model, please visit: http://www.iupsmip.com/component/
option,com_remository/Itemid,36/func,startdown/id,100/

In the above spreadsheet example, an analysis of Amgen (AMGN) was done and the spreadsheet ultimately found the company to be trading at a discount of about 19% to its peers.

This spreadsheet is not the only determining factor in an investment decision; the sheet is preliminary a tool to analyze and identify stocks that will require more detailed research before a final decision can be made. The twenty minutes that it takes to input the numbers into the spreadsheet will save you roughly two hours or more compiling due diligence. In a future post, I will present the SMIP’s fundamental analysis worksheet that must be completed prior to the company being presented to the team.

At first, the spreadsheet is somewhat difficult to maneuver, but I will guide you through the process.

The areas highlighted in green are areas that will require you to input information to be used in compiling the intrinsic value of the company.

Company Inputs Section:

The data to be used here can be found at the links provided, but when analyzing a different company, please replace the ticker symbol with that of your company.

Item

Can Be Found at

Price Per Share:
$56.94

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=
AMGN

EPS (Earnings Per Share): $4.41

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=
AMGN
under the Earnings Est section, I tend to use the Next Year Average Earnings Estimate

Growth Rate:
11.2%

the bottom of the page of the following link http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=
AMGN
under the Growth Est, in this figure I tend to use the next 5 years prediction.

Market Cap:
$66,030.0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=
AMGN
, where the figure is $66.03 Billion, which the figure that should be used in the spreadsheet should be in millions, therefore, billions would appear in thousands. If a company had a market cap of $500 million, it should be inputted as 500.00 into the spreadsheet.

Sales:
$14,740.00

the Key Statistics in the Income Statement section at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/
ks?s=AMGN
under Revenue (ttm). This number should be listed in the spreadsheet in millions.

Book Value
per Share: $17.01

the bottom of the page at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under the Balance Sheet section.

Cashflow per
Share: $3.49

http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/
jsp/finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?
tkr=AMGN
under the Latest 12 Month
Data in the middle of the page, this
is a dollar amount per share.

Shares Outstanding (mil): 1,160.00

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under the Share Statistics
section, this number should also be
listed as in millions.

EBITDA (mil):
$6,480.00

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under the Income Statement section, this number should be listed in millions.

Enterprise Value
(mil): $68,610.00

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under Valuation Measures section, this should be listed in millions.

PEG Ratio: 1.23

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under Valuation Measures section, this should be listed as is.


AMGN Competitors Section:

To get a good start on which companies to use as your comparable analysis, you should visit http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AMGN and http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMGN and look under the Related Companies section. You want to find a sample of 5-6 related companies to input their valuation ratios to value your company. When selecting companies to use as comparables, you should look for companies that have a market cap above $250 million.

I will give an example of how to collect the information for the first competitor on the list BAX, Baxter International. You will need to collect the following information:

Item

Can Be Found at

P/E Ratio: 24.8

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Forward P/E under the Valuation Measures

PEG Ratio: 1.72

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the PEG Ratio under Valuation Measures

P/S Ratio (Price to Sales): 3.48

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Price to Sales Ratio under Valuation Measures

EV/EBITDA: 14.32

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Enterprise Value/EBITDA under Valuation Measures

Price/
Cashflow: 17.7

http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/
finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?tkr=BAX
under the Latest 12 Month Data section towards the bottom, this is a ratio and what you are looking for is Price/Cashflow Ratio

Price/Book: 5.6

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Price/Book Ratio under Valuation Measures

After this step, repeat the above processes for the other 4-5 competitors. If the ratio is not available for a company, just leave that section blank so it will not be used in the valuation calculation. If one company’s ratio is an outlier as compared to the other companies in the spreadsheet, consider leaving that section blank so it will not give an artificially high intrinsic value.

The Intrinsic Price Calculation:

The spreadsheet then takes the average of the 5-6 competitors’ ratios and then applies those ratios to the information provided about the main company under analysis. It then gives a price of the company for each of the valuation ratios: Price/Earnings, PEG, Price/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Cashflow, and Price/Book. All of the prices that are given from those ratios are then averaged together to give the “Average Intrinsic Price”, which is then compared to the current stock price. Finally, a percentage drawn from these calculations shows if the company is overvalued or undervalued—and by how much it is. If the percentage is positive, then the company is undervalued as compared to its peers, and if the percentage is negative, then the company is overvalued.

I hope that this post has been helpful to those of you who are looking for a model of valuing stocks. This model should not be used by itself since it ignores other factors that go into the value of a stock, but it can help identify stocks for further research.

If you require any assistance in using the spreadsheet, or have any other questions or comments, please feel free to contact me at bryan@thefinancialwhiz.com.

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Responses

[…] One Method of Valuing Stocks: Comparable Ratio ValuationTo get a good start on which companies to use as your comparable analysis, you should visit http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AMGN and http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMGN and look under the Related Companies section. … […]

[…] Bryan Moore presents One Method of Valuing Stocks: Comparable Ratio Valuation posted at TheFinancialWhiz.Com. The Comparable Ratio Valuation is just one of the ways to value stocks, but it can be very useful in identifying undervalued stocks. Here you can download a copy of the spreadsheet and follow the step-by-step instructions on how to value a particular stock of your choosing. Questions can be directed to the site’s owner by utilizing the comments field. […]

[…] Now that the screener program has helped to create a list of companies that, from the onset, appear to be trading at a reasonable valuation, it is time to pick a couple of different companies and perform further research. The next logical step in researching a company would be to complete the Comparable Ratio Valuation, which values a company based on the value of its competitors. […]

[…] As I mentioned in my previous post entitled, “3rd Tip on Becoming a Financial Whiz: How to Value a Stock - Comparable Ratio Valuation”, once you have found an attractively priced stock, you must then analyze the company on a more detailed basis. This ensures that the stock you identified is indeed undervalued and that it does not have some major issue as to why it is trading at that price. […]

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All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Trade at your own risk. Contact the author at: bryan@thefinancialwhiz.com
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